Taiwan is about to elect its leader on January 13, 2024. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) have already named their nominees. With DPP losing steam under Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership on the island, opposition KMT’s Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜 emerges as the hopeful leader.
Beijing seems to have a similar expectation. Wang Huning’s 王沪宁 recent remarks at the 2023 Work Conference on Taiwan Affairs (Zh) on May 9 and 10 were a bit more placatory than those by his predecessor Wang Yang 汪洋 a year ago (Zh). Nevertheless, they both stood firm against the "Taiwan independence" separatist and emphasized the “carrot” part of the Taiwan policy.
Here are what the two chairmen of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) said in the 2023 and 2022 Work Conferences on Taiwan Affairs.
(On May 9 to 10, 2023)
王沪宁表示，要坚持一个中国原则和“九二共识”，推动两岸关系和平发展。要秉持“两岸一家亲”理念，尊重、关爱、造福台湾同胞，完善增进台湾同胞福祉的制度和政策，持续深化两岸融合发展。要逐步恢复扩大两岸交流，同台湾各阶层人士交朋友，促进两岸同胞心灵契合。要坚决反对“台独”分裂活动和外部势力干涉，坚决捍卫国家主权和领土完整。(Wang Huning said that we must adhere to the one-China principle and the "1992 Consensus" and promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. We should uphold the concept of "both sides of the Strait are one family"; respect, care for, and provide benefits to Taiwan compatriots; improve systems and policies that improve the well-being of Taiwan compatriots, and continue to deepen cross-strait integration and development. We should gradually resume and expand cross-strait exchanges, make friends with people from all walks of life in Taiwan, and promote spiritual harmony between compatriots on both sides of the strait. We must resolutely oppose "Taiwan independence" separatist activities and interference by external forces, and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.)
( On January 25, 2022)
汪洋强调，……要发扬斗争精神，坚决遏制“台独”挑衅和外部势力干涉，筑牢反“独”促统强大阵线。要秉持“两岸一家亲”理念，完善同台企台胞分享发展机遇和落实同等待遇的政策，为台湾基层民众、青年群体参与两岸交流合作提供更多便利条件。要支持福建探索海峡两岸融合发展新路、建设海峡两岸融合发展示范区。要做好舆论宣传工作，向台湾同胞讲透我对台大政方针的核心意涵，引导广大台胞坚守民族大义、辨别是非真伪。(Wang Yang emphasized that...we must carry forward the spirit of struggle, resolutely curb the provocation of "Taiwan independence" and the interference of external forces, and build a strong front against [Taiwan] "independence" and promote reunification. We should uphold the concept of "both sides of the Strait are one family", improve the policy of sharing development opportunities and implementing equal treatment with Taiwanese compatriots in Taiwan, and provide more convenient conditions for Taiwan's grassroots people and youth groups to participate in cross-strait exchanges and cooperation. We should support Fujian in exploring a new path for cross-strait integrated development and building a cross-strait integrated development demonstration zone. It is necessary to do a good job in public opinion propaganda, explain to Taiwan compatriots the core meaning of my policy on Taiwan University, and guide the majority of Taiwan compatriots to stick to the righteousness of the nation and distinguish between truth and falsehood.)
On the other hand, the U.S. is planning to send more military support to Taipei, probably at the request of DPP. But Washington could also benefit from gathering more intelligence from the island and areas around it. In spite of this, U.S. Army General Mark Milley had made it clear that he doesn’t want a war. Hope reason will hold sway.
Reuters reported on May 5 that the Biden administration was about to send a $500 million aid of weapons to the Taipei authorities. The island’s military leader Chiu Kuo-cheng 邱國正 confirmed the news last Monday. Taiwan media also found that more than 200 instructors, including more than 160 military personnel had arrived on the island to facilitate the training of local troops. The training aid plan was broke out by The Wall Street Journal in February.
At a press conference on Tuesday, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Tan Kefei responded to a question about possible U.S. military aid (Zh/En):
台湾问题是中国核心利益中的核心，是中美关系第一条不可逾越的红线。“断交、废约、撤军”三原则是中美建交的前提条件，绝对不容开历史倒车。我们正告美方，切实恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报规定，将不支持“台独”的承诺落到实处，停止任何形式的美台军事勾连。我们正告民进党当局和“台独”分裂势力，企图“倚美谋独”“以武谋独”是死路一条。
The Taiwan question is at the very core of China's core interests, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations. The "Three Principles" are the preconditions for the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the US, namely, severing so-called "diplomatic relations", abrogating the "mutual defense treaty" with the Taiwan authorities, and withdrawing US military forces from Taiwan. China won't accept any attempt to reverse the wheel of history. We strongly urge the US side to fully abide by the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiqués, fulfill its commitment of not supporting "Taiwan independence", and stop any form of military collusion with Taiwan. And we warn the DPP authorities and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces that any attempt to seek independence by soliciting US support or by force will lead nowhere.